估底迷思：基辛格的決策智慧

今日有五年無聯絡嘅舊同學T突然Whatsapp我，話有留意我哋嗰Page，覺得好正，仲問我咩位再入市好。我話我依家答佢唔到，因為我哋嘅炒股方式，基本上係「順勢」嚟炒。

雖然我好真心咁答個問題，但係亦知道自己講完等於冇講，都有少少覺得唔好意思。有啲人覺得，股市甚至係世事，因果清晰，只要事前詳加分析，結果係絕對可以預計到嘅。然而，中學老師Wood Lee都有教落：「能知三日事者，早已富貴千萬年」。世事好多時都係見步行步，摸著石頭過河，邊有得估咁多？

日前剛巧見到美國國務卿基辛格以下一段說話：

"requires [the] ability to project beyond the known. And when one is in the realm of the new, then one reaches the dilemma that there's really very little to guide the policy-maker except what convictions he brings to it.... Every statesman must choose at some point between whether he wishes certainty or whether he wishes to rely on his assessment of the situation.... If one wants demonstrable proof one in a sense becomes a prisoner of events."

意思係話，當你有足夠嘅資訊去下決定嘅時候，十居其十已經太遲。亦即是說，事前根本無足夠資訊予你詳加分析，所以即使分析能力最醒嘅人都無可能100%肯定到結果。好似近日股市一樣，你要首先見到恆指跌得好勁，啲股民開始自己嚇自己，之後先可以用經驗去估佢會跌落20500點，而且仲要係講唔實。個市跌都未跌之前，無知股民驚都未驚過，從何講起佢哋驚起上嚟，恆指應該跌落幾多點？你可唔可以預知三日之後會有感冒，所以食咗感冒藥先？

講開個市，見到ADR跌緊成400點，本週都冇乜策略好講。睇下個市幾時跌定咗先再補寫啦。暫時我哋覺得一、兩隻個別股仔或者可以炒下，但仍然係90%cash。